Relative sea level rise trends and projections up to 2150 along the Italian coasts: implications for coastal flooding

We focus on the current and future sea level (SL) trends along the Italian coasts which are affected by spatially variable rates of Vertical Land Movements (VLM) in response to tectonics and anthropic activities. Since VLM play a crucial role in local sea level rise along the coasts, they need to be estimated and incorporated in the analysis for more affordable sea level rise projections.

To estimate the current VLM rates we used geodetic data from about 27 years of continuous GNSS observations at a set of stations belonging to Euro-Mediterranean networks located within 5 km from the coast. Revised SL projections up to the year 2150 are provided at a set of points on a geographical grid and at the location of some tide gauges belonging to the PSMSL network, by including the estimated VLM in the SL projections released by the IPCC in the AR6 Report. Our results show that the current IPCC projections are not representative of the expected future sea levels since they do not properly consider the effects of tectonics and other local factors. Here we show that revised multi-temporal sea level projections at 2030-2050-2100 and 2150 show significant differences with respect to those of the IPCC for different Shared Socio-economic Pathways and global warming levels. Finally, our results indicate that about 1600 km of length and 10.000 km² of the considered Italian coasts are yet exposed to flooding risk, with enhanced impacts on the environment, human activities and coastal infrastructures, in particular in 39 coastal plains. With the above scenarios, and especially in case of eventual instabilities of the Greenland and west Antarctica ice sheets, the effects of extreme meteorological events and tsunamis, will soon amplified along the Italian coasts, with serious concerns for main and small islands. Therefore, actions are needed to support vulnerable populations to adapt to the expected relative sea level rise by the end of this century and beyond.