Fingerprinting the AMOC and predicting a collapse
- University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute, Physics of Ice and Climate (PICE), Copenhagen N, Denmark (pditlev@nbi.ku.dk)
In a recent paper [2] we predicted a collapse of the AMOC as soon as mid-century at odds with assessments based on climate model scenarios. The prediction was based on the sub polar gyre fingerprint as a proxy for the AMOC as proposed by Ceasar et al. [2]. Several other fingerprints have been proposed, all showing early warning signals of a forthcoming tipping point [3]. Here we present a statistical analysis, optimally extracting the common signal in the different fingerprints in order to further solidify the assessments.
[1] Ditlevsen, P., Ditlevsen, S. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 4254 (2023)
[2] Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A. et al. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556, 191–196 (2018)
[3] Boers, N. Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 680–688 (2021)
How to cite: Ditlevsen, P.: Fingerprinting the AMOC and predicting a collapse, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12023, 2024.
