Learning from the past to prepare for the worst. Impact Chain on the multi-hazard of COVID-19 pandemic and a powerful earthquake in Bucharest

In the last years, the impacts of natural hazards have been coupled with and sometimes overshadowed by those of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such co-occurrences added extra layers to risk management and highlighted the need for updated multi-hazard risk models and management plans. While developing the tools, models, and strategies to battle the challenges of the post-pandemic world, an unsettling question lingers: What if the most impactful and feared hazard in a specific area were to occur during a pandemic wave?

This study aims to 1) take an in-depth look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospital system in Bucharest, Romania, and 2) identify the compounded impacts of a powerful earthquake that would potentially affect the city during a pandemic wave, under an Impact Chain-based approach. To this end, two Impact Chains are analysed side by side: one of them presents the actual impacts of the pandemic documented for 2020-2022, and the other focuses on the potential impacts of a powerful earthquake, similar to the one that affected Romania in March 1977 (7.4 M_W). The co-occurrence of such powerful hazardous events poses a worst-case scenario for Bucharest, which stands out as the European capital with the highest seismic risk and one of the urban centres severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

The Impact Chain centred on the COVID-19 pandemic dwells on a wide range of sources: scientific literature, data collected from hospital administration (e.g., reports on available medical resources, including human resources), official reports from international health care organisms, legislative documents that regulate COVID-19 prevention protocols, official press releases, and grey literature in the form of news reports. The earthquake-based Impact Chain represents a simplified, expert knowledge-based version of a larger chain developed within the Paratus Project as part of the analysis of present and future outcomes of a major earthquake in Bucharest.

 

By juxtaposing the two Impact Chains, this study addresses the research gap concerning the compounded impacts of earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic, an area currently open for further investigation. This analysis offers an initial answer to the worrisome question posed earlier, aiding in the preparation for “the worst” in Bucharest.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, earthquake, impact chain, hospital system, Romania