Studying the Long-Term Variability of the Solar Corona Using Modeling and Remote-Sensing Observations

The Sun is a subject to vivid research due to its significant impact on our daily existence. We know about the periodic behaviour in the structure of the Sun, the 11-year solar cycle, but we have yet to fully understand what it means for the inner heliosphere and how it affects the solar wind. Accurately modelling these structural changes in the solar Corona on large time scales is important to understand and even predict solar weather patterns that could potentially influence Earth's magnetic field, telecommunications, and even space missions. Fully comprehending these changes is crucial for enhancing our ability to forecast and prepare for potential solar events that might affect various aspects of our technological infrastructure and space exploration endeavours. 

To this end, we have prepared a database of solar corona and inner heliosphere simulations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework’s Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (SWMF/AWSoM) during Solar Cycles 24 and 25. Using SolarSoft’s FORWARD we study the distribution and emission of solar wind origins, such as coronal holes and active regions, throughout the solar cycles and analyse how well AWSoM is reproducing them at different phases of the solar cycle. We also compare how 1AU in-situ plasma measurements are predicted and how it relates to the reproduction of the origin of the solar wind in the corona.  

Studying the reproducibility of the coronal and heliospheric plasma throughout decades of time can prove invaluable in understanding changes in the solar structure during a solar cycle and benchmark the accuracy of the models’ predictive power in the future.