Historical Climate Assessments in Panama

Panama is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly the increase in ocean and atmospheric temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and rises in sea level. During the last decades, regional and local studies have reported a warming trend in the Central American region, including Panama. Temperature data from Central Panama indicate an increase of approximately 1°C since the 1970's. A 142-year precipitation record from the Panama Canal Authority shows a clear trend towards an increased frequency of severe storms and droughts during the last 25 years. The purpose of these historical climate assessments is twofold: first, to assess whether statistically significant climatic trends exist in the historical record (indicating that climatic change is occurring), and second, to establish climatic baselines against which to evaluate the consistency and relative change of future climate projections vis-à-vis the historical record. Historical climatic data includes precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and surface downwelling solar radiation (MJ/m²) from all existing ground stations in Panama.

The significance of trends and other metrics of climatic change will be assessed through non-parametric statistical tests. Numerical trends will be developed and assessed for each and all climatic variables of interest for the 30 most recent years at different temporal and spatial scales. This analysis will be conducted on annual, monthly, and daily time scales and at the national, hydroclimatic region, province, and district spatial scales. In addition to the four climatic variables referenced above, trends will also be assessed for the following climatic indices at the same spatial scales referenced above: heat waves, annual drought duration, average and maximum rainfall deficit during annual droughts, biennial drought duration, and average and maximum rainfall deficit during biennial droughts. This historical weather data analysis is crucial for water management, water availability, Panama Canal operation, agriculture, and energy, helping Panamanian society quantify and manage climate risks.