EGU24-12187, updated on 09 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12187
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Anticipating rate-induced tipping by a deep learning framework

Yu Huang1,2, Sebastian Bathiany1,2, Peter Ashwin3, and Niklas Boers1,2,3
Yu Huang et al.
  • 1Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
  • 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when the forcing rate changes too rapidly for the system to track its quasi-equilibrium state, leading to an unexpected collapse. Currently, there is a lack of valid early warning signals (EWS) for R-tipping, particularly in the presence of noise perturbations. To address this deficiency, we employ a deep learning algorithm to extract the high-order structures hidden within time series data before R-tipping occurs. Then the trained neural networks are taken to provide real-time EWS for R-tipping, demonstrating skillful forecasts with a substantially long lead time, surpassing the performance of conventional critical slowing down indicators. Our progress underscores the predictability of R-tipping, offering the potential to improve the ability to deduce the safe operating space for a wider spectrum of complex systems.

How to cite: Huang, Y., Bathiany, S., Ashwin, P., and Boers, N.: Anticipating rate-induced tipping by a deep learning framework, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12187, 2024.