EGU24-1227, updated on 08 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Increases in extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide

Dongsheng Zheng1, Dan Tong1, Steven J. Davis2,3, Yue Qin4, Yang Liu1, Rongchong Xu1, Jin Yang1, Xizhe Yan1, and Qiang Zhang1
Dongsheng Zheng et al.
  • 1Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, China (
  • 2Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
  • 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
  • 4College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

Extreme power shortage events, especially occurred in wind-solar hybrid supply systems, are longstanding serious threats to safeguard energy security and socioeconomic stabilization. Here, 43 years of hourly reanalysis climatological data are leveraged to examine historical trends in defined extreme long-duration and low-reliability events in wind-solar systems worldwide. We find interannual and decadal uptrends in the two types of defined extreme power shortage events regardless of their frequency, duration, and intensity since 1980. For instance, duration of extreme low-reliability events worldwide has increased by 5.39 hours (0.113 hours y−1 on average) between 1980–2000 and 2001–2022. However, such ascending trends are unevenly distributed worldwide, with a higher variability in low- and middle-latitude developing countries but a smaller change in high-latitude developed countries. This observed uptrends in extreme power shortage events are primarily driven by increases in extremely low wind speeds instead of solar radiation. However, the changes in power shortage events and extremely low wind speeds are strongly disproportionated. Only 8.80% change in extremely low wind speed gives rise to over 30% variability in extreme power shortage events, despite a mere 1.26% change in average wind speed. Our findings underline that wind-solar hybrid supply systems will probably suffer from weakened power security if such upwards trends persist in a warmer coming future.

How to cite: Zheng, D., Tong, D., Davis, S. J., Qin, Y., Liu, Y., Xu, R., Yang, J., Yan, X., and Zhang, Q.: Increases in extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1227,, 2024.