Estimation of Diffuse Solar Radiation Models for a Tropical Site in Nigeria

Knowledge of solar radiation and its components in a particular area is crucial in studying solar energy and constructing solar energy devices due to the many advantages solar radiation has over fossil fuels. In this two-year study, conducted at a tropical site in Ile-Ife, Nigeria, from January 2016 to December 2017, twenty-one empirical models were proposed to estimate diffuse solar radiation using continuous solar radiation data. The models were divided into five groups and developed using relative sunshine duration and/or clearness index as input variables. The performance of five models from the literature was also examined and compared to measured data. The models' performance was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), the Global Performance Index (GPI), and various statistical errors. Model 11, a quadratic model with clearness index as an input variable, had the lowest AIC (1.8098), AIC_C (4.8099), ∆AIC_C (0.0000), and GPI (-2.1796) values and was the most accurate model for estimating diffuse solar radiation at the study site and other locations with similar climatic conditions. None of the models selected from the literature was suitable for estimating diffuse solar radiation at the study site; hence, the proposed models performed better.