Scenario-based Assessment of Land Use Change on Air Quality

In recent decades, growing urbanization and rapid land use changes have been important components of current development, affecting environmental dynamics, particularly air quality. Over 80% of city people may be exposed to levels of pollution that exceed WHO standards (WHO 2016). Previous research focused solely on the relationship between built-up space and particulate matter (PM), with no concern for future scenarios. This study explores the potential impact of land use change on air quality using a detailed scenario-based technique. The air pollutant data for 2022 was principally gathered from five distinct land uses, whereas previous years (2010 to 2021) were received from the Central Pollution Control Board. In a supervised classification technique, a Maximum Likelihood Classifier is utilized to analyze the LULC of 2010, 2016, and 2022 in Kharagpur, a rising industrial town and the fourth-largest city in West Bengal. The analysis shows a strong 20.62 percent rise in urban areas, particularly in the eastern region, from 2010 to 2022, comprising residential, commercial, and industrial zones. Between 2010 and 2022, there is an 11.23 percent loss in vegetative areas, a 9.29 percent decrease in agricultural land, and a 0.10 percent decrease in aquatic bodies. Further spatiotemporal analysis reveals that areas with low urban density had the lowest amounts of air pollution, with an overall Air Quality Index (AQI) in the "excellent" range (0-50). Industrial land use contributes 74.37 percent to air pollution, followed by densely populated urban regions, which have a 47.62 percent higher AQI than low-density zones. Furthermore, the vehicular corridor has a 33.49 percent higher AQI than low-density places. According to the data, the most significant pollutants leading to AQI variance are PM2.5 and PM10. A correlation study emphasizes the effect of land use changes on air quality since PM10 was followed by overall AQI is positively related to built-up areas and negatively related to vegetation and water bodies. It suggests that fast urbanization may damage air quality, but vegetation and waterbodies might improve air quality and lower AQI. Polluted air has a negative impact on human health, agricultural production, and numerous ecosystems, putting future urban growth at risk. It is therefore critical to assess future land use changes in order to predict future air quality settings and take preventive efforts to mitigate air pollution. To compare future air quality settings to a baseline, two scenarios for LULC prediction are examined: business as usual (BUA) and sustainable development (SD). These scenarios can help determine future urban development paths, as well as land use planning and policy-level action to improve air quality.

Keywords: Land Use change, Air quality, Time series forecasting, CA-ANN, Scenario-based Analysis, Kharagpur.