Creating a community testbed to strengthen the research to operations pathway for hydrologic prediction in the US

The US NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) is a consortium of several dozen US institutions (academic, private, non-profit) that collectively partner with the US National Water Center (NWC) to conduct research to advance operational hydrologic forecasting services.  This presention describes the new CIROH Hydrologic Prediction Testbed (CHPT), a community-oriented initiative to establish rigorous, quantitative intercomparison and benchmarking of US operational hydrologic forecasts, and particularly the multiple elements – models, methods, datasets – involved in producing them.  The Testbed’s overarching goal is to address the problematic lack of coherence of research into fundamental challenges and needs for operational prediction systems, which is a significant impediment to intercomparison, benchmarking, and synergistic learning across diverse investments into forecasting research and development. Hundreds of localized, one-off studies are published, yet few of the resulting potential advances ever become operational. The CHPT promotes a benchmark-oriented paradigm through facilitating the use of multiple community-based experimental protocols with standardized evaluation tools, targeting different forecasting and forecasting sub-component objectives. Examples of forecasting sub-components include the models, model parameterizations (e.g., glacier physics, channel routing), input datasets, and techniques (e.g., data assimilation, post-processing, ensemble methods), across time scales from nowcasting to multi-season prediction. This paradigm is essential to produce a consistent intercomparison and evaluation of innovations arising from distinct forecast-related research projects across the community.  This in turn supports a rational assessment of the potential gains of each innovation against current operational baseline capabilities. As it matures, the CHPT will enable the US to quantify and track the current performance of its hydrologic forecasting capabilities – for the first time – enabling evidence-driven decisions regarding the adoption of new forecast elements into operational practice. The core concepts of CHPT are generalizable to forecasting research and development activities in countries and communities globally.