The role of poroelasticity in rupture dynamics across fault stepovers

Understanding earthquake rupture propagation across fault stepovers is pivotal for assessing the seismic hazard, offering vital insights into dynamic rupture processes within intricate fault geometries. However, the role of poroelastic effects within strike-slip fault systems featuring stepovers remains unexplored in dynamic models simulating Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS). Many existing models neglect poroelastic effects, and among those that consider them, a typical standard value of 0.8 is adopted for Skempton's coefficient B. Furthermore, a single dynamic rupture simulation is unable to address the frequency at which ruptures propagate through the stepover. Instead, these simulations only provide a binary status, indicating whether the ruptures jump or arrest. Thus, the investigation into how poroelasticity influences the likelihood of an earthquake jumping through a stepover emerges as a significant area of study. In response, we introduce a quasi-dynamic boundary element model that simulates 2D plane-strain earthquake sequences. This model incorporates undrained pore pressure responses affecting the fault's clamping and unclamping mechanisms and is governed by rate-and-state friction, with state evolution defined by the aging law. We first illustrate that dynamic rupture occurring in either left-lateral or right-lateral fault stepovers leads to a dynamic decrease (unclamping) or increase (clamping) in the effective normal stress. Dynamic variations of the effective normal stress depend on Skempton's coefficient. Consequently, higher Skempton's coefficients can promote rupture jumping across fault segments even for larger stepover distances. We then conduct a thorough parameter space study, evaluating the effects of Skempton's coefficient variations and stepover width on fault interactions within a fluid-filled porous environment. The likelihood of rupture jumping involves a trade-off between Skempton's coefficient and stepover width. We validate the numerical model by comparing it to an analytical solution that involves a plane strain shear dislocation on a leaky plane within a linear poroelastic, fluid-saturated solid. This validation demonstrates that a simple analytical solution, primarily dependent on fault dislocation and Skempton's coefficient, has the potential to effectively predict the pore pressure change. The critical jumping width for 50% chance of rupture jumping predicted by our model explains the threshold dimension of the fault step, above which ruptures do not propagate. This study highlights the significance of incorporating poroelastic effects on- and off-fault in understanding the dynamic variations of the effective normal stress, which could significantly alter the overall length of fault rupture.