Less than 4% of dryland areas will desertify due to climate change.

Drylands with low biological productivity are more fragile compared with non-drylands, making many human activities within them sensitive to long-term trends. Any negative trend in dryland condition is considered desertification. The Aridity Index, widely used to define drylands, indicates increasing aridity in the drylands over several decades, which has been linked to increasing occurrence of desertification. Future projections show continued increases in aridity due to climate change, suggesting that drylands will expand. However, satellite observations show a general greening of the drylands. Given the past inconsistency between the Aridity Index changes and observed vegetation changes, future evolution of vegetation productivity within the drylands remains an open question. Here we use a data driven approach to estimate the state of vegetation in the drylands and project their future changes. Results shows most of the global drylands are projected to see an increase in vegetation productivity due to climate change through 2050. The general increases are in-part due to CO2 fertilization effects and are in-line with recent trends and continue the past inconsistency with changes in the Aridity Index. Climate change negates the changes in at most 4% of global drylands to produce desertification. These regions include parts of north-east Brazil, Namibia, western Sahel, Horn of Africa and central Asia.