The critical role of optimal forest management in China for meeting its wood demand and climate target

China’s demand for wood and forest products continues to grow with the booming papermaking industry and residence use, leading to a dramatic increase in imports of wood products. Meanwhile, woody biomass for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been projected as a pivotal negative emission strategy in meeting climate goals in the future. However, the imposition of natural forest ban and the pursuit of future climate targets may create additional gaps in the availability of forestry products. Here, we use the GLOBIOM-China model to assess the impacts of diverse woody biomass demands, national programs for afforestation and forest plantation, and management measures in China under climate targets. The results indicate an increase in domestic roundwood consumption by 20.3~50.3 million m³ in 2050 under 1.5℃ scenario compared to that under the baseline scenario (BAU) without BECCS demand, with increased proportion for wood fuel uses and less for pulp and sawn wood consumption. Domestic production fails to meet the energy and material demands for woody products by 2060, necessitating an additional import of 63~144 million m³ of roundwood compared with the BAU, approximately accounting for 29~46% of domestic production. Enhancing logging potential can help prevent the continued transformation of natural forests into managed forests and forest plantations on cropland, as well as reduce roundwood imports by 55-89 million m³, when compared to the management of forests under normal increments. Moreover, such productivity enhancement could contribute to an additional sequestration in forestry of 0.1-1.26 Gt CO₂ by 2060. This study underscores the imperative for enhanced forestry system management in China to effectively meet its ambitious climate commitments.