EGU24-15028, updated on 09 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15028
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

How well does 3DCORE perform at fitting flux rope signatures in real-time?

Ute Amerstorfer1, Hannah Rüdisser1, Andreas Weiss2, and Christian Möstl1
Ute Amerstorfer et al.
  • 1Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria, Graz, Austria (ute.amerstorfer@geosphere.at)
  • 2NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellow, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA

The 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) method has been used to fit magnetic fields of CME flux ropes to in situ observations. Its assumed Gold-Hoyle-like flux rope has an elliptical cross-section and expands self-similarly, thereby staying always attached to the Sun. An approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo algorithm performs the fitting and allows us to get error estimates of the model parameters. 

Extending our previous studies, we investigate the ability of 3DCORE to fit the magnetic field of a flux rope in real time, when only the first hours of an observation are available. Therefore, we use past events mimicking a possible real-time application, but also any real-time events possibly happening. If performing well, this real-time application of 3DCORE can further advance the efforts of space weather prediction.

 

How to cite: Amerstorfer, U., Rüdisser, H., Weiss, A., and Möstl, C.: How well does 3DCORE perform at fitting flux rope signatures in real-time?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15028, 2024.