Understanding and predicting the spread of Phlebotomine sand flies in Europe

Climate change influences the transmission of vector-borne diseases by affecting the distribution and survival of disease vectors. Numerous diseases are transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies (SFs), including Leishmaniasis. Several major sand fly-borne diseases (SFBDs) are responsible for high global disease burdens and high socio-economic costs. In Europe, 22 known SF vector species are largely confined to the Mediterranean Basin, yet global warming is predicted to drive the spread of SFs to large areas of Europe in the 21^th century, an effect likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic variables. However, the constraints to the geographic distributions of SFs are not well understood. This study aims to increase the understanding of the drivers of the spatial distributions of SFs. To achieve this, we use species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the role of climate, land-use and socio-economic drivers in shaping the geographic distributions of all endemic SF vectors in Europe. With this knowledge, we predict future hotspots of SFs in Europe. Our predictions are spatially explicit, scenario-based, and informative for surveillance efforts.