Exploring the Interplay of Climatic Trends, Reservoir Fluctuations, and Vegetation Dynamics in Paphos, Cyprus: A Decade-Long Study Towards Sustainable Resource Management

Drought is a complex phenomenon that cannot be easily detected in its early stages and advances slowly, but cumulatively. Its consequences can be short-term, such as water deficiency in rivers and dams, and long-term like saltwater intrusion and ecosystem degradation. These impacts make agricultural productivity vulnerable, exacerbate waterborne diseases and increase the risk or wildfires, posing a threat to food security, safety and sovereignty. Cyprus, characterized by a semi-arid climate, experienced in recent years prolonged and frequent droughts that had multiple impacts on agricultural production and consequently the ecosystem and the economy. In the face of a changing climate and increased frequency of droughts, monitoring and understanding such phenomena is crucial in mitigating their impacts. Our overall goal is to investigate the relationships between climatic trends, reservoir fluctuations and vegetation dynamics over the study period. Therefore, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the previously mentioned relationships for the hydrological region of Paphos, (Cyprus) for the period between 2013 and 2023. Vegetated areas are extracted using the European Space Agency WorldCover tree cover, shrubland, grassland, and cropland land cover classes. The study integrates measurements at meteorological stations and satellite-derived time series to assess the relationship between climatic variables and vegetation processes. In particular, we compare the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated using CHIRPS data (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data), with hydrological drought indices provided by the Water Development Department. The latter are estimated on the basis of a drought indicator system that utilizes monthly dam Inflows and mean daily flows of hydrometric stations. Additionally, we analyze spatial climatic variables (such as the MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Evapotranspiration) and vegetation indices (such as MODIS and Sentinel-2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and Green Chlorophyll Index). Preliminary results show that vegetation dynamics and drought patterns vary based on seasons and the studied land cover classes. The findings of our study are anticipated to contribute to sustainable land and water resources management in the Paphos region.

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the ‘GreenCarbonCY’: Transitioning to Green agriculture by assessing and mitigating Carbon emissions from agricultural soils in Cyprus. The ‘GreenCarbonCy project has received funding from the European Union - Next Generation, the Recovery and Resilience Plan “Cyprus_tomorrow”, and the Research & Innovation Foundation of Cyprus under the Restart 2016-2020 Program with contract number CODEVELOP-GT/0322/0023.