Data-driven short-term forecast of suspended inorganic matter as seen by ocean colour remote sensing.

Short-term forecasting (several days in advance) of underwater visibility range is needed for marine and maritime operations involving divers or optical sensors, as well as for recreational activities such as scuba diving (e.g. Chang et al 2013). Underwater visibility mainly depends on water turbidity, which is caused by small suspended particles of organic and mineral origin (Preisendorfer 1986). Modelling the fate of these particles can be complex, encouraging the development of machine learning methods based on satellite data and hydrodynamic simulations (e.g. Jourdin et al 2020). In the field of forecasting visibility, deep learning methods are emerging (Prypeshniuk 2023). Here, in continuation of Vient et al (2022) on the interpolation purpose, this work deals with forecasting subsurface mineral turbidity levels over the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay using the deep learning method entitled 4DVarNet (Fablet et al 2021) applied to ocean colour satellite data, with additional data such as bathymetry (ocean depths) and time series of main forcing statistical parameters like wave significant heights and tidal coefficients. Using satellite data alone, results show that 2-day forecasts are accurate enough. When adding bathymetry and forcing parameters in the process, forecasts can go up to 6 days in advance.

References

Chang, G., Jones, C., and Twardowski, M. (2013), Prediction of optical variability in dynamic nearshore environments, Methods in Oceanography, 7, 63-78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mio.2013.12.002

Fablet, R., Chapron, B., Drumetz, L., Mémin, E., Pannekoucke, O., and Rousseau, F. (2021), Learning variational data assimilation models and solvers, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, e2021MS002572, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002572

Jourdin, F., Renosh, P.R., Charantonis, A.A., Guillou, N., Thiria, S., Badran, F. and Garlan, T. (2021), An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in Deriving Suspended Sediment Concentrations in the Ocean From MTG/FCI Satellite Sensor, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 59(7), 5423-5433, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2020.3011742

Preisendorfer, R. W. (1986), Secchi disk science: Visual optics of natural waters, Limnology and Oceanography, 31(5), 909-926, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1986.31.5.0909

Prypeshniuk, V. (2023), Ocean surface visibility prediction, Master thesis, Ukrainian Catholic University, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Department of Computer Sciences, Lviv, Ukraine, 39 pp, https://er.ucu.edu.ua/handle/1/3948?locale-attribute=en

Vient, J.-M., Fablet, R.;, Jourdin, F. and Delacourt, C. (2022), End-to-End Neural Interpolation of Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Suspended Sediment Concentrations, Remote Sens., 14(16), 4024, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14164024