Building industry resilience through seasonal forecast briefings to Australian marine stakeholders heading into the 2023/24 summer

Heading into a potential El Niño in 2023/24, concern was high amongst Australian marine stakeholders regarding potential marine heatwave impacts on marine industries and systems in the coming summer. Targeted climate outlook briefings for the Great Barrier Reef and Western Australian coral reefs have been provided prior to and throughout the summer months by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the past 10-15 years, however in 2023 these were requested much earlier than usual. Also in 2023, national level seafood-focused briefings were requested by the fisheries sector for the first time, with various state and regional level meetings and information requests also occurring.

Subseasonal to seasonal forecast information played a critical role in these briefings, providing both the big picture in terms of climate drivers impacting Australian waters as well as regional information regarding sea surface temperatures around Australia. These forecast products are operationally produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology using the seasonal prediction system ACCESS-S. Clear communication of forecast probabilities and model skill was essential. New prototype marine heatwave forecasts were also presented to marine stakeholders, indicating where there was a high likelihood of marine heatwaves occurring in the upcoming season, together with likely severity. Demand for this new information on temperatures extremes was high and provided impetus for setting up coordinated briefings and response plans across sectors.

Forecasts can provide a 'preparation window' for marine stakeholders to implement proactive management strategies prior to high-risk conditions, noting however that not all industries have the same level of agility to respond. Subseasonal to seasonal forecast tools, that are useful, usable and used, provide valuable information to assist marine stakeholders in managing climate risk and vulnerability in a warming climate.