Climate responses to regional aerosol emissions: Early multi-model results from RAMIP
- 1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (l.j.wilcox@reading.ac.uk)
- 2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA
- 3CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
- 4Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, Science and Technology Facilities Council, UK
- 5Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- 6Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
- 7Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- 8Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research, Helsinki, Finland
- 9NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
- 10Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Kasuga, Japan
- 11Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Climate School, New York, NY, USA
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, with complex geographical and seasonal patterns. This is expected to drive strong, spatially varying trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events, both near and far from emission sources. These changes are poorly constrained in current models, and very sparsely represented in climate risk assessments, partly because of a lack of dedicated emission pathways and multi-model investigations.
The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) is designed to quantify and bound the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term climate projections. RAMIP experiments are based on the SSPs commonly used in CMIP6 Endorsed MIPs, but are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location, and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments assess the effects of different aerosol emission pathways in East Asia, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and North America and Europe through 2051, using a multi-ensemble-member approach in a set of 10 Earth System Models.
Based on early output from a subset of participating RAMIP models, we highlight regions where current and future aerosol reductions may lead to changes in seasonal mean climate and the frequency and severity of extreme events. We will also show examples of how the near-future evolution of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Asia may be influenced by local air quality policies, and those further afield.
How to cite: Wilcox, L., Allen, R., Samset, B., MacRae, M., Fraser-Leach, L., Koshiro, T., Kushner, P., Lewinschal, A., Makkonen, R., Merikanto, J., O'Donnell, D., Oshima, N., Paynter, D., Rumbold, S., Takemura, T., Tsigaridis, K., and Westervelt, D.: Climate responses to regional aerosol emissions: Early multi-model results from RAMIP, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15938, 2024.
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