Synchronized responses of lake and vegetation dynamics to climate change

Arid central Asia, the largest non-zonal arid zone globally, serves as a crucial region for the westerlies-dominated climate regime (WDCR). Despite observing a warm-wet trend in recent years, the response of surface landscape elements such as lakes and vegetation to this climate change remains uncertain. In this study, we conduct an analysis of long-term trends (1992-2020) in lake area and NDVI across arid central Asia while comparing them with key climate factors including precipitation, drought index, and soil moisture. Our findings reveal that lakes are expanding and vegetation is greening in most regions situated at elevations exceeding 100 meters. Conversely, lakes are shrinking and vegetation is browning solely in low-altitude areas (<100m). The changes observed in water body area and NDVI exhibit robust spatiotemporal consistency that aligns with the ongoing warm-wet trend represented by the WDCR. Climate factors, particularly precipitation, exert a pivotal influence on the variations observed in surface water and vegetation within arid central Asia.