Integrated Approach to Mekong River Flow Modeling: Data Gaps and Climate Trends

The transboundary Mekong River, spanning approximately 4800 km with numerous tributaries and floodplains, serves as a vital resource for power generation, fisheries, and agriculture. Despite its significance, the river's productivity faces disruption due to inadequate cooperation among riparian countries regarding data sharing, the uneven distribution of gauging stations, and data gaps for many parts of the river length. This disparity poses challenges in accurately modeling the river's natural runoff, flow characteristics, and the flooded area, navigating through mountainous and relatively flat terrains.

To address this, we have developed an integrated modeling framework comprising a physically-based hydrological model and a hydrodynamic model. For 2500 km of the Mekong River’s mainstream, a highly accurate hydrodynamic model was developed. The produced velocity, water level, and discharge data were compared with gauging stations with continuous data records, showing high accuracy with NSE exceeding 0.93. Additionally, a point-by-point comparison of the yielded water level and discharge data by the hydrodynamic model was conducted with the low-resolution recorded data for stations lacking continuous time series data. Results indicated a high accuracy with an average NSE greater than 0.91, demonstrating the model's precision in capturing the dynamic behavior of the Mekong River.

The hydrodynamic model's results were then used to fill data gaps in stations with significant data deficiencies, allowing the production of reliable data and sufficient gauging network distribution for the entire basin. These datasets, combined with recorded gauging data, served as the calibration stations for the developed physically-based hydrological model. This calibration aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on natural runoff, encompassing not only the mainstream but also tributaries and lake floodplains of the Mekong River. Findings revealed a discernible declining trend in natural runoff within the Mekong River over the specified four-decade period.

This enhanced modeling capability is particularly crucial for accurately simulating dynamic river flows with insufficient continuous data. Our comprehensive approach contributes to a more precise understanding of the Mekong River's complex hydrological dynamics, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable resource management.