Building an agent-based model to assess multi-risk caused by climate change in coastal areas: the case study of the Jesolo municipality (Italy)

Over the past three decades, the global climate has experienced a significant and unprecedented increase of temperature, leading to the occurrence of many extreme events worldwide. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, due to the high population density, interconnected economic activities and the presence of fragile habitats and ecosystems. The interactions between multiple hazards, acting at different temporal and spatial scales, can amplify the effects on dynamic vulnerability and exposure patterns.

In order to address these complex challenges, an integrated approach becomes crucial, considering the relationships among all risk factors (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) at the land-sea interface.

Agent-based model (ABM) approaches are able to simulate the interactions between different individuals, households or communities, playing a vital role in the analysis of their responses to environmental hazards (e.g., sea-level rise, heavy precipitation, extreme wind) and adaptation strategies (e.g., beach nourishment, nature-based solutions).

Here we present the development of a local-scale ABM to assess coastal risks caused by climate change on various sectors, such as local communities, tourism, and ecosystems. In particular, the model aims at exploring the interactions among atmospheric and marine hazards (e.g., sea-level rise, extreme precipitation, and wind), exposure and vulnerability factors (e.g., land-use, population) to simulate coastal risks for the municipality of Jesolo (Italy). The ABM will be trained with local-scale records over the 2009-2020 baseline timeframe, and then used to project future climate risk until 2100, under the climate change scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), as well as the potential effect induced by different coastal protection measures and nature-based adaptation strategies (e.g., beach nourishment, groins).

The resulting outcomes could represent a valuable tool to inform stakeholders and decision-makers on climate change adaptation, in line with EU, national and local adaptation strategies. Furthermore, they can be used to improve disaster risk preparedness as well as raise awareness in local communities.