Exploring the structure of the Cascadia Subduction Zone by coupling 3D thermomechanical modeling and CPO evolution with observations.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone is characterized by young subducting lithosphere, its isolation from other subducting systems, and its ability to produce megathrust earthquakes (M>9.0) and devastating tsunamis. Due to its high potential hazard and risk, it is also a well-studied subduction zone where modern, diverse and detailed observational datasets are available through the USGS and initiatives like GeoPrisms and EarthScope. These datasets include high quality GPS, onshore and offshore geophysical imaging, geochemical and seismic anisotropy data. Integrating these data sets with geodynamic modeling presents an opportunity to gain insight into outstanding questions regarding slab structure, tectonic evolution, seismic hazards, and the physical processes that can self-consistently explain all these observations. For example, geologic and geophysical data suggest that there may be one or two prominent slab gaps or tears, while tomographic data does not fully constrain the depth extent of the slab. Furthermore, the overriding plate is composed of different terranes and contains numerous active and slowly moving faults, complicating efforts to accurately constrain variations in present-day stress and deformation rates.

In this study we test whether comparison of observations to geodynamic model predictions can distinguish between different slab geometries for the Cascadia Subduction Zone. To this end, we have created regional 3D geodynamic models of Cascadia including the slab based on the Slab 2.0 dataset. The model setup is built with the Geodynamic World Builder, and the models are run with the geodynamics code ASPECT. We present results which compare the Juan de Fuca plate velocities against the present day Euler poles. We have found that matching the plate velocity magnitude and direction is sensitive to the rheological model overall, while at the same time being insensitive to certain aspects of the plate boundary rheologies. During the evolution of these models we track the development of the CPO (Crystal Preferred Orientation) with an implementation of the DREX algorithm, so we can compare it against observations of seismic anisotropy in the region. Our presentation will focus on the importance of the geometry of the slab and the strength of different sections of the interface. Furthermore, these models and demonstrate workflows for linking the model results to surface tectonics.