Assessing extreme temperature volatilities across Germany between 1990 and 2022

Climate change causes a global rise in mean air temperature and increased frequency of temperature extremes. Recent studies link sharp temperature changes between consecutive days to increased mortality, reduced economic growth, and negative effects on ecosystems. While climatological analyses predominantly focus on mean temperatures, extreme temperatures have higher impacts on human health. This study assesses the variability of the daily maximum air temperature between two consecutive days (i.e., volatility) across Germany from 1990 to 2022. We used observation-based raster data of the maximum daily temperature assessed volatility regarding: 1) magnitude, 2) seasonality, 3) the direction of temperature change, and 4) trends during the entire period. As changes of land use and land cover have a direct impact on local temperatures, we analysed the land cover changes during the same period and examine its correlation to extreme volatilities.

The results showed a higher magnitude of rapid temperature decreases compared to temperature increases. Extreme volatilities increased with further distance to the coast from north of Germany to south. Overall, abrupt day-to-day temperature changes occurred mostly during the warming half-year (from March to August). During the study period, significant trends of 0.5 °C and 0.2 °C per decade showed a widening range of extreme volatility in spring and autumn. Compared to unchanged areas, changing land cover was predominantly liked to increasing volatilities of up to 0.5 °C. Understanding rapid temperature changes is crucial for climate change mitigation strategies and limiting impacts on human health and on the environment.