First-order global stress patterns inferred from hierarchies of upper mantle flow models

Understanding the intricate dynamics of mantle flow and their influence on lithospheric stress patterns is critical for assessing reservoir responses to potential CO2 or nuclear waste storage, as well as for hazard and risk assessment. Stress patterns play a first-order control in the mechanical response within inherited tectonic structures, with varying stress sources governing different spatiotemporal scales. Our understanding of the present-day mantle flow state has much improved over the past decades, reflected in models that are consistent with first-order features. The World Stress Map (WSM) project serves as a primary observational dataset to validate our understanding of Earth's dynamics through a global compilation of crustal stress indicators.

Here we study mantle flow models as a simplified superposition of Couette and Poiseuille flow types, which have been useful in explaining sub-continental scale deformation in the lithosphere. We aim to understand the role of mantle flow as a stress driver by generating stress fields from an analytical representation of upper mantle flow, derived from the superposition of steady-state flow models. Our approach allows us to build first-order expectations and conduct fast hypothesis testing for upper mantle flow states.