Hazards and risk assessment for Volcanoes of Turkey

Turkey has 14 active volcanoes known to have had eruptions of Holocene age and four historic eruptions have been recorded. The last eruption was at Ağri (Ararat) in 1840, when an estimated 1900 people died. The low rate of eruptions in Turkey might be construed as indicating low risk, but this is misleading for two reasons. Firstly, the Holocene record indicates that many of the volcanoes have had significant explosive eruptions, some including long run-outs of pyroclastic flows and blasts. Secondly, there has been huge population growth in cities on the flanks of active volcanoes, which greatly increases exposure. More than 3.1 million people live within 30 km of active volcanoes in Turkey.  Urban development on the surface of Holocene pyroclastic flows and blast deposits lead to high risk should volcanic activity resume. The vulnerability is further exacerbated through current populations having no experience of past eruptions. In the TurcVolc project, profiles of all Turkey’s active volcanoes were developed with an emphasis on hazards and risk assessment. Modelling of these hazards provides a baseline for identifying potential hazard zones for future eruptions. The above points are illustrated by presenting volcanic hazard and risk profiles for Erciyes Daği and Hasan Daği volcanoes. The Volcanic Hazard and Population Exposure Indices for each volcano were used to develop a risk matrix for Turkish volcanoes. Four volcanoes were identified at risk level III (high risk). These were Erciyes Dağı, Gölcük, Hasandağ and Nemrut. Three volcanoes exhibited dominantly effusive behaviour and small-scale explosive activity at risk level I (low risk). These were Karapınar Volcanic Field, Karacadağ and Kars Plateau. The remaining volcanoes (Ağri, Tendurek, Acıgol, Kula, Golludag, Süphan, Girekol) were classified at risk level II (intermediate risk).