EGU24-17113, updated on 11 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17113
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

New tools for the estimation of direct and indirect impacts to Italian economic activities

Marta Ballocci1,2, Daniela Molinari1, Francesco Ballio1, Giovanni Marin3, Alice Gallazzi1, and Panagiotis Asadiris1
Marta Ballocci et al.
  • 1Politecnico di Milano, Politecnico , Civil and environmental engineering, Milan, Italy (marta.ballocci@gmail.com)
  • 2University School for Advanced studies, Pavia, Italy.
  • 3Department of Economics, Society, Politics, University of Urbino 'Carlo Bo', via Aurelio Saffi, 2, 61029 Urbino, Italy

Flood-related damage has increased dramatically in recent decades with direct and indirect economic impacts accounting for a large share of gross national products. Therefore, there is an urgent need to acquire more quantitative knowledge about flood damage to mitigate economic losses and reduce exposure to flood risk.

Firms are especially affected in case of flood. Still, flood direct damage assessment to businesses is hindered by the paucity of available data to characterize the enterprises, the lack of high-quality damage data to derive new models or validate existing ones, and the high variability of activity types which hampers generalization. On the indirect damage side, the existing literature predominantly focus on estimating damage at the macro scale, leaving a gap in understanding the specific impact on individual firms.

This study contributes at improving knowledge about types and extent of damage of flood events on economic activities through the analysis of empirical data, focusing on direct and indirect damage at the micro-scale, with specific reference to the Italian context. The investigated data derive from observed direct damage records collected after six flood events in Italy. The information on the surface of the building, the typology of the affected firms (i.e., NACE category) as well as on local water depth levels and the classification in damage components (building, equipment, and stock) permitted to develop an econometric model to forecast the direct damage and to analyze the mechanisms of flood damage across the economic sectors. The original dataset was then enriched with information included in the financial statement of flooded activities that has been used to investigate indirect damage.

Despite characterized by significant uncertainty, obtained results supply first tools for the prediction of flood direct damage and for the quantification of indirect damages to firms for the Italian context, in the support of more effective risk mitigation actions. In fact, the model identifies the more vulnerable elements within the business sectors orienting modelers and decision-makers choices.

How to cite: Ballocci, M., Molinari, D., Ballio, F., Marin, G., Gallazzi, A., and Asadiris, P.: New tools for the estimation of direct and indirect impacts to Italian economic activities, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17113, 2024.