A meso-scale simulation of future household and commercial water use under socio-economic and climatic scenarios in Thuringia

Understanding water use conflicts and anticipating their possible future trajectories requires knowledge of the drivers of household and commercial water use. Water demand is primarily shaped by long-term demographic and socio-economic trends, alongside seasonal fluctuations in weather, which are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Because the availability of water resources and their use by the various economic sectors are spatially very heterogeneous, it is necessary to use spatially explicit models to investigate water conflicts, which differentiate in particular between rural and urban regions. Here we simulate the regional water use of households and commercial enterprises for the Free State of Thuringia at a high spatial resolution. The model is based on household water demand functions for representative household types and regions.  The household and communal water use is then simulated based on local characteristics of each supply area. The model distinguishes between base water demand, which is explained by socio-demographic factors, and seasonal water demand, which is explained by weather factors. To parametrize the model, we use various regression techniques with public data, and daily water discharge of representative suppliers. Our results show different trajectories of water consumption quantities. Thereby we combine socio-demographic scenarios using statistically downscaled Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and climate scenarios using Regionalized Concentration Pathways. We provide a range of different distributions of water use patterns in Thuringia, informing decision makers about integrated water management options and the effect of demand-side policy measures such as tariffs.