Unravelling the Patagonian Local Last Glacial Maximum and its Deglaciation History from a Modelling Perspective

During the Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 2-3, the Patagonian ice sheet (PIS) stretched along the southern Andes from 55°S to 38°S. Based on Glacial geomorphological and geochronological evidence, its western margin reached the Pacific Ocean, while its easternmost sectors were characterised by terrestrial lobes that fed large paleo-glacial lakes. Previous studies suggest that the maximum extension of PIS was reached towards the end of the MIS 3. However, uncertainty remains regarding the glacial and climate evolution that led to its maximum extension in asynchrony with the Northern Hemisphere ice masses and Antarctica.

We present an ensemble of transient numerical simulations of the PIS that were carried out through the MIS 3 and MIS 2, aiming to determine the range of climate conditions that match the field-derived ice sheet geometries and climate history of the Patagonian ice sheet prior the global LGM, which corresponds to the timing of the local glacial maximum and its subsequent deglaciation. Furthermore, we bracketed the spread in possible ice volumes and sea level contributions originating from uncertainties in the internal parameters and external forcings. The model ensemble is built using the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS forced by phases 3 and 4 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The transient simulations are based on a glacial index method by using a combination of Patagonian offshore records and Antarctic cores. Our results indicate that the regional climate conditions required to reproduce a realistic growth and demise of the PIS through the Late Quaternary are not captured by coarse-resolution global climate models, implying the need of climate models with high spatial resolution and a well-constrained ice mask, which could reproduce the necessary cooling to promote the adequate growth. Our results also suggest that the MIS3 should have witnessed colder conditions than those modeled at the LGM by global climate models to realistically simulate the evolution of the PIS in agreement with geological archives.