Comprehensive Analysis of Hydrological Dynamics and Uncertainties in the Moroccan High Atlas: A Focus on Seasonal Precipitation, Runoff, and Flood Events
- 1IIHR – Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Iowa, 52242 United States of America
- 2Department of Water Resources and Drinking Water Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Switzerland
- 3Center for Remote Sensing Applications (CRSA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), 43150 Benguerir, Morocco
- 4LMFE, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, 40000 Marrakech, Morocco
The Mediterranean regions, particularly the Moroccan High Atlas, is exposed to natural risks associated with the hydrological cycle, notably intense precipitation events that trigger sudden floods. This research delves into the subtleties of hydrological dynamics in the High Atlas watersheds, specifically in the Zat watershed, to comprehend the seasonality of precipitation and runoff and elucidate the origins of floods.
The results reveal a strong correlation between observed and simulated hydrographs, affirming the model's capability to capture complex hydrological processes. Evaluation metrics, particularly the Nash coefficient, demonstrate a robust model performance during the calibration phase, ranging from 61.9% to 90%. This attests to the model's ability to reproduce the dynamic nature of hydrological systems in the Moroccan High Atlas.
It is noteworthy that the study identifies the snowmelt process as a significant factor of uncertainty in runoff flooding parameters. The complexities associated with snowmelt, especially in the context of spring precipitation, emerge as a crucial factor influencing uncertainties in the simulated results. This finding underscores the importance of accurately representing snowmelt dynamics in hydrological simulations for regions prone to natural risks.
Moreover, the integration of Probability Distribution Functions and Monte Carlo simulations, coupled with rigorous evaluation metrics, enhances our understanding of calibration parameter uncertainties and validates the model's performance. The identified influence of snowmelt on runoff flooding parameters provides crucial insights for future model improvements and the development of effective mitigation strategies in regions vulnerable to natural risks. This research contributes to advancing hydrological modeling practices in complex terrain.
Keywords: Seasonality, Rainfall-Runoff, Floods, Calibration, Monte Carlo simulation, Parameter Uncertainty, Hydrological Modeling, Snowmelt Dynamics, Natural Risks.
How to cite: Benkirane, M., Amazirh, A., Bouras, E. H., Chakir, A., and Khabba, S.: Comprehensive Analysis of Hydrological Dynamics and Uncertainties in the Moroccan High Atlas: A Focus on Seasonal Precipitation, Runoff, and Flood Events, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17649, 2024.
