The urban heat island effect aggravates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution shifts of Phlebotomus perniciosus in Europe

Urban environments are especially sensitive to global warming due to their characteristic man-made surfaces and decreased vegetation cover. Elevated temperature in cities can facilitate the pole-wards expansion of arthropod disease vectors, including Phlebotomine sand flies (SFs). No study to date has yet been done to understand the effects of elevated urban temperatures on the distribution range shifts of SFs on continental scale. This study fills that gap and tests the role of urban heat island (UHI) in driving distribution range shifts of Phlebotomus perniciosus in Europe under two climatic scenarios. We find that P. perniciosus can occur more northly in summer due to UHI under both scenarios. Our study suggests that arthropod disease vectors can occur in cities where they are not expected due to UHI.