Enhancing the Ambition and Technical Feasibility of Delivering Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement

Delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement, including limiting global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C requires the setting and implementation of ambitious yet viable Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. Article 4 of the Paris Agreement establishes a responsibility on each party to ‘prepare, communicate and maintain’ successive NDCs, each more ambitious than the last. Parties are then encouraged to work at a domestic level to achieve their NDC objectives.

Based on an analysis of NDCs from eastern and northern Africa (including Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda) here we outline steps that would (i) strengthen opportunities for scientific input in the development of NDCs, ensuring that the mitigation and adaptation pledges included are both comprehensive and scientifically feasible, and (ii) improve aligned implementation strategies, ensuring coherence with higher education and research and innovation, and a cross-governmental approach to addressing climate change.

A lack of engagement with appropriate expertise when developing NDCs may result in pledges that are not viable and/or the omission of feasible and impactful options. A lack of appropriate implementation planning, and policy coherence, may result in a skills shortage that hinders implementation of actions set out in NDCs and therefore the ability to deliver the mitigation and adaptation ambitions of the Paris Agreement. Collectively, the steps we propose would strengthen the NDC process, while also supporting global ambitions to improve education for sustainable development (Sustainable Development Goal 4.7), employment opportunities (Sustainable Development Goal 8.5, 8.6), and research capacity (Sustainable Development Goal 9.5).