Analyzing Tree Degradation in the Haouz Plain through Remote Sensing: Assessing the Impact of Drought and Spatial Extent

Trees characterized by persistent foliage, like olive trees, serve as indispensable assets in arid and semi-arid regions, exemplified by the Haouz plain in central Morocco. The decline in water resources for irrigation, attributed to climate change and excessive underground water extraction, has led to significant degradation of tree orchards in recent years. Employing remote sensing data, we conducted a spatial analysis of tree degradation from 2013 to 2022 using the supervised classification method. Subsequently, a drying speed index (DS) was computed based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat-8 data, specifically focusing on the identified trees. This DS was then correlated with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIn) to elucidate the connection between tree degradation and drought, as indicated by precipitation deficit. The findings reveal a discernible declining trend in trees, with an average decrease in NDVI by 0.02 between 2019 and 2022 compared to the reference period (2013-2019). This decline has impacted an extensive area of 37,550 hectares. Furthermore, the outcomes derived from the analysis of SPI profiles depict a prolonged period of dryness, particularly extreme drought in the past four years, characterized by SPI values consistently below -2. Notably, a high correlation coefficient (R) of -0.87 and -0.88 was observed between DS and SPI9 and SPI12 respectively, emphasizing the strong linkage between drying speed and the duration and intensity of drought. These findings emphasize the reliability of NDVI as an effective tool for precise classification of tree land cover. Additionally, they underscore the significant influence of drought on the degradation of trees in the Haouz plain.