Temporal Dynamics of Internal Mobility in Response to Climate Extremes: A Global Analysis.

This study presents a novel approach to understanding the impact of climate extremes on human mobility by examining not only the immediate response to the occurrence of such events per se but also the effect of their duration and frequency over time. Utilizing the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) climate data in combination with recently released geo-located sub-national net migration data provided by Niva et al. 2023, we assess the influence of various climate-related events, including droughts, floods, crop failures, and tropical cyclones. Our analysis goes beyond the traditional binary assessment of whether climate extremes affect mobility, delving into the nuanced ways these recurrent events shape migration patterns in areas with different levels of socio-economic development and political inclusivity over time. We aim to capture the shifts in net migration at a granular level, providing insights into how populations respond to environmental stressors over short, medium, and long-term periods. This temporal aspect is crucial in understanding the resilience and adaptability of communities in the face of climate change. Our findings reveal significant variations in mobility responses depending on the nature and duration of climate extremes.  This study contributes to the broader discourse on climate change and human mobility by highlighting the importance of considering temporal dynamics in policy development and planning for climate resilience.