Future Projections and Complementarity Assessment of Solar and Wind Power in China Using CMIP6 Models

As China strides towards its carbon neutrality target by 2060, the strategic planning of renewable energy distribution and power plant installations becomes imperative to fulfill the renewable energy penetration goals. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the future projections of solar and wind power resources in China, utilizing the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We examine various CMIP6 scenarios to project the geographical and temporal variations of solar and wind energy potential up to 2100. A verification assessment was carried out using terrestrial solar radiation and wind speed data sourced from 17 stations operated by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This evaluation revealed that the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2-0 (MRI-ESM2-0) demonstrated overall superior performance in terms of correlation coefficients (R) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Then MRI-ESM2-0 was selected to examine the spatial and temporal shifts in solar and wind potential in China. Notably, in the SSP585 scenario, a marked decrease in both PV power potential and wind power potential was observed. Additionally, the future spatial complementarity between solar and wind power in China was evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Kendall rank correlation coefficient and this was juxtaposed with the present complementarity. These maps provide a crucial reference for guiding the planning and management of renewable energy resources in China.