Risk Tipping Points in an Interconnected World

The convergence of multiple societal and ecological challenges threatens to push us into an uncertain, risky future. Our critical life-supporting systems, such as the human climate niche, hydrological cycles, natural ecosystems, food production, knowledge systems, and risk management tools, are all fundamentally challenged. While these systems have been continually reshaped throughout human history, the speed of change and the simultaneous changes occurring today are unprecedented. Our research shows how we are teetering on the precipice of multiple tipping points that can trigger abrupt and often irreversible changes to the systems we rely upon.

Our research provides a conceptual definition of risk tipping points as a new way to think about the risks we face and illustrates examples of how the concept can be applied. While climate tipping points refer to tipping elements of Earth systems, such as hydrological cycles or climate patterns, risk tipping points concern the socioecological systems dependent on them and when they stop being able to buffer risk and provide their expected functions. We discuss six prominent examples of risks facing these socioecological systems, such as groundwater depletion and space debris, and identify conceptual tipping points for each of them.

Furthermore, our research discusses each of these risk tipping points within a context of interconnectivity. We analyze how similar human behaviors and values are at the root of multiple risk tipping points, putting pressure on multiple systems simultaneously. Since none of these systems are isolated from each other, when one system passes a risk tipping point, it increases the overall risk across systems and may actually accelerate tipping in another system. Feedback loops between systems can amplify the impacts of risks and can create self-reinforcing dynamics that increase the speed of change. The effects of these manifesting risks may accumulate over time, causing multiple risk tipping points to overlap and increase risk even further.

Finally, our research demonstrates that any attempt to reduce risk in these systems must acknowledge and understand these underlying pressures and their interconnectivity. Actions that affect one system will likely have consequences on another, so integrated and informed solutions are necessary to avoid negative consequences. This also means that interconnectivity can be used as an advantage through solutions that provide co-benefits to address risk tipping points in multiple systems at once. Interconnected risks require interconnected solutions to ensure a safe and sustainable future for all.