Assessing Future Climate Extremes in Türkiye: A High Resolution CMIP6-based Analysis

This study employs the latest versions of global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate climate extremes in Türkiye from 2015 to 2100 under two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Utilizing a number of high resolution CMIP6 models and different scenarios over the full projection period make this study unique over the region. To downscale coarse-resolution climate models to approximately 9 km (0.1° × 0.1°) spatial resolution, Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) is employed. The downscaling process utilizes the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-Land (ERA5-Land) dataset as the reference data. Analysis of 12 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and 12 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) between 2015 and 2100 consistently indicates an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Türkiye under both future scenarios. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a higher degree of water stress compared to SSP2-4.5, with a 20% reduction in total precipitation in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions of Türkiye. Despite an overall decrease in precipitation, the findings suggest an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. This implies that a greater proportion of total precipitation will be contributed by these extreme events. Anticipated trends include an increase in temperature extremes, encompassing both the lowest and highest daily maximum temperatures across all regions of Türkiye. This signifies a warming signal of up to 7.5 °C by the end of the current century. Cold extremes also exhibit a tendency towards warming, as evidenced by a significant decrease in the number of ice days across all areas. This trend may potentially result in less snow accumulation, which negatively affects various sectors.