Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in Europe: A multi-domain analysis
- 1CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal, (helder.relvas@ua.pt)
- 2CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 3CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 4CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 5CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 6CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 7CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 8CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
- 9CESAM, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Recent studies have highlighted the diverse health consequences associated with climate change. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the specific susceptibilities of individuals and cities to these changes remains lacking. Addressing this gap, our study offers insights into potential excess mortality risks attributable to heat-related events under various climate change scenarios across diverse European regions, within the framework of the European Project DISTENDER.
The primary objective of this research is to assess the potential impact of climate change scenarios, specifically Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, on heat-related excess mortality in a range of European locations. Focusing on Austria, the EURAF domain (encompassing parts of Portugal and Spain), a region in the Netherlands, the metropolitan area of Turin (Italy), and the urban area of Guimarães (Portugal), our investigation spans varied socio-geographic domains.
By employing local-specific relative risk functions and daily average temperature data spanning 2015 to 2049, derived through statistical downscaling from CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR global climate models, our analysis encompasses resolutions ranging from 9000 to 500 meters, depending on the specific domain. This multidomain approach allows for capturing localized variations in climate impacts with high spatial resolution.
The significance of our findings lies in their contribution to informing adaptive strategies, public health policies, and urban planning efforts aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change on vulnerable populations. Preliminary results indicate a distinct upward trend in heat-related excess mortality over the years, with the highest values observed for SSP5-8.5. Furthermore, there exists considerable variability among climate models.
Acknowledgements:
The authors would also like to acknowledge the support of CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020 + UIDB/50017/2020 + LA/P/0094/2020) and C2TN (UIDB/04349/2020). Thanks are due to the DISTENDER Project (Grant agreement ID: 101056836). Thanks are due to FCT/MCTES for the contract granted to Helder Relvas (10.54499/2021.00185.CEECIND/CP1659/CT0026).
How to cite: Relvas, H., Coelho, S., Rodrigues, V., Isabel Miranda, A., Lopes, M., Graça, D., Augusto, B., Basso, J., and Ferreira, J.: Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in Europe: A multi-domain analysis, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18354, 2024.
