Evaluating the Impact of Global Warming on Industrial Crops in Africa

Global warming will significantly affect agricultural sector in Africa but its implication on the future cultivation of industrial crops is still unknown. The present study examines the impact global warming on industrial crops (Soyabean, Coffee and Cotton) suitability and planting season in Africa under the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Using the multi-model ensemble datasets from the CMIP6 simulations for SSP245 & 585 for the historical (1981-2010), near future (2035-2064) and end of century (2070-2099) periods as input into Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, we examine the impact of climate change on the suitability and planting season of industrial crops in SSA owing to their economic importance to the region. Our result shows Soyabean is most suitable across most part of the region in comparison to Coffee and Cotton with suitability index above 0.5 except south of 20^oS in southern Africa and in the Sahel zone (north of 14^oN) over the historical period. The impact of climate change shows increase,10 and 20% in suitable area for Soyabean over East Africa while no significant is expected change for Cotton in the near future and end of century respectively. In contrast, a decrease 15% and 25% in suitable/ cultivated area for Arabica coffee may be expected in the near future and end of century respectively over West and Central Africa. In addition, no change in planting season is expected over the two periods and SSPs for Soyabean and Cotton. However, a 2-month early planting for arabica and robusta coffee may be expected over West and southern Africa respectively by the end of century with SSP585.  Also, a 1-month delay in the planting season may be expected for robusta coffee over West and Central Africa by the end of century under ssp585. The study will assist to improve our understanding on the response of industrial crops to the impact climate change under different SSPs in Africa and its resultant effect on economy in sub-Saharan Africa. It will also help inform policy maker in their decision making of adaptation strategies to improve suitable areas for the cultivation of the crops to enhance the economy of the region.

 

Keywords: Industrial crops, Ecocrop, Global warming, Africa