Air Quality Modeling for Policy Support in Poland – system overview and recent results

The role of air quality modelling as a supporting tool for providing information to citizens and policymakers is becoming more significant, as shown in recent research studies and the enhancement of modelling applications in a proposal for the new Ambient Air Quality Directive.

Starting in 2018, the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute (IEP-NRI) is legislated to provide modelling in support of air quality policy for Poland. This support covers modelling and its analysis required for annual air quality assessment (46 zones, including 30 urban areas), the impact of transboundary transport analysis on pollution concentrations in Poland, representativeness of monitoring stations, 5-year assessment for the purpose of zone classifications, modelled scenarios for National Air Quality Improvement Plan. An operational air quality forecast for 72 hours is also modelled every day and is being used for public information, as well as eventual air quality alerts. All simulations are calculated with the GEM-AQ model (Kaminski et al., 2008), configuration and resolution are fit for purpose and depend on application - concerning the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Forum for Air Quality Modeling (FAIRMODE) guidelines and evaluation methods. Most of the analyses cover the modelling of at least primary pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5) and are based on a high-resolution Central Emission Database made by The National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE) for Poland. Results and analysis are provided to the State Inspectorate of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Environment and Climate and published on IEP-NRI web pages.

We will present the configuration and solutions of the modelling system built in IEP-NRI, as well as the most recent results. The strengths of the described approach work in progress, and further development plans will be shown and discussed.