Expected performance of the MORE geodesy experiment during the orbital phase of BepiColombo

The BepiColombo spacecraft, designed by ESA/JAXA, is currently in its cruise phase towards Mercury. The Mercury Orbiter Radio-science Experiment (MORE), one of the scientific investigations of the mission, will exploit a multi-frequency microwave tracking system with an advanced Ka-band transponder to fulfill scientific goals in Mercury’s geodesy and fundamental physics. Thanks to the precise measurements enabled by the state-of-the-art radio tracking system, MORE is expected to provide new insights on the planet and its interior, expanding and improving the results of the MESSENGER mission. In this work, we assess the performance of the geodesy investigation conducted by MORE, focusing on the orbital phase, starting in early 2026. In particular, this study evaluates how BepiColombo's refined gravity data can reduce the uncertainty in the estimate of the Love Number k₂, rotational state and crustal thickness of Mercury.  We report the results of the numerical simulation based on the up-to-date mission scenario, which consists of a two-year orbital phase. We simulate synthetic radio observables and estimate the model parameters through a precise analysis of the spacecraft orbital motion. We include different sources of mismodelling to reproduce a perturbed dynamical state of the probe, such as errors in the thermo-optical coefficients of the spacecraft, wheel off-loading maneuvers with unbalanced ΔVs and random fluctuations of solar irradiance, which cannot be modelled or measured by the onboard accelerometer. We use the covariance matrix coming from this analysis to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a set of gravity fields statistically compatible with a reference field (HgM009, derived from a recent reanalysis of the MESSENGER dataset). By combining these gravity fields with available topographic data, we produce a distribution of Mercury’s crustal thickness maps, from which we infer the corresponding estimation uncertainty. We compare the expected accuracies of the BepiColombo gravity experiment with the current state of knowledge. We show that MORE shall fulfill its scientific goals by improving the estimate of the planet’s gravity field, tidal response and rotational state. Our findings demonstrate how the estimate of Mercury’s crustal thickness benefits from BepiColombo’s high precision gravity measurements. The uncertainties derived from our simulation show that MORE will provide a reliable and high resolution basis for associating gravity anomalies with geological surface features on Mercury, such as impact craters, rift zones, and lobate scarps.