The potential impacts of climate change and forest management on water resources for micro-, meso- and macro-scale catchments in cold regions

Potential climate change impacts on water resources have been extensively assessed in Norway due to substantial changes in climate in the recent decades. However, the combined and isolated effects of forest and forest management have been rarely considered in the climate impact studies in Norway although about 38% of the land area is covered by forest. This study aims to improve hydrological impact projections in forest dominant catchments by considering the effects of forest growth and management and to attribute hydrological changes to climate and forest changes. The eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was applied to simulate hydrological processes and extremes for two micro-scale, two meso-scale and two macro-scale catchments, accounting for the effects of spatial scale. The climate projections were generated by three EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment for the European domain) regional climate models (RCMs) for two RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and were bias corrected using the quantile-mapping method. Forest development over time was simulated as a function of climate determining growth and SSP-dependent harvest levels determining wood outtake. The simulations were initialized with the forest status of the year 2020 and different forest types are distinguished according to structural characteristics represented by three key parameters: leaf area index, mean tree height and surface albedo. Preliminary simulation results show that there are minor changes (within ±5%) in hydrological processes under the combinations of the climate and forest scenarios for these catchments. Climate change is the major driver of hydrological change at the catchment scale whereas forest development mainly influences the spatial distribution of the hydrological fluxes. The results further indicate that forest growth under a warming climate helps to reduce the risk of the floods and drought slightly by reducing surface runoff in wet periods and increasing base flow in dry periods, respectively.