Navigating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Perception in the Context of Climate-Induced Extremes

The flood events in Germany during the summer of 2021 have once again brought to the forefront the challenges in translating scientific knowledge into effective disaster risk management practices. This paper examines the critical gap between the scientific understanding of flood risks and the practical needs of those who manage these risks. We delve into the limitations of current scientific approaches, such as flood risk and hazard mapping, in fully addressing the complexities and nuances required for practical disaster risk management, especially in the face of uncertain climate change impacts. We examine the dynamics of how flood risk information, inclusive of uncertainties, is perceived and acted upon, highlighting the psychological factors influencing these processes. The paper discusses the challenges and opportunities in translating scientific risk assessments and forecasts into practical, actionable strategies for communities and stakeholders. By highlighting the disconnects and potential areas for improvement in the science-practice interface, this paper seeks to foster a more coherent and comprehensive approach to disaster risk management. Within the framework of the Safe Development Paradox, the importance of communicating uncertainties and evaluating their potential impacts on planning and emergency responses is discussed. This paper addresses uncertainties at multiple levels and for different stakeholders, highlighting the integration of uncertainty information as a vital step in preparing for surprises and ambiguities in the context of extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change.