Adaptations in agricultural water management in arid regions: modelling farmer behaviour and cooperation on irrigation sustainability

The disruptions in weather patterns and intensified drought imposed by climate change in arid and semi-arid areas require prompt adaptation of irrigation strategies to sustain production and build resilience. Our research develops a quantitative methodological framework outlining irrigation management strategies, focusing on groundwater governance and drip irrigation adoption, to pinpoint influential factors steering decision-making. Extensive interviews undertaken in Al Haouz Basin, Morocco, provided insights into irrigation choices. We identified themes through inductive encoding and translated these into an integrative modelling framework relying on a fusion of planned behaviour theory and structural equation modelling. This enabled analysis of relationships among attitudes, norms, perceived behavioural control and intentions to adopt practices and technologies. We tested hypothesized pathways through which these factors influence adoption. Structural equation modelling estimates relationship strengths while accounting for interacting variables. The results show farmers' attitudes towards the efficiency of drip irrigation, the sustainability of groundwater resources, and salinity increase in groundwater play a crucial role in their decision-making processes regarding water usage. Land ownership provides a sense of long-term control over sustainable water usage. However, complexities in subsidy applications and uncertainties in land tenure present substantial barriers to adopting drip irrigation, particularly for small-scale farmers, thereby limiting their capacity to adapt to climate change. Our study uncovers the key factors influencing evolving agricultural practices and delves into the policy implications surrounding these changes. By examining the adaptive strategies of farmers, our research lays a foundation for formulating evidence-based policy reforms to increase agricultural resilience and water sustainability in arid and semi-arid climates.