Evolution of Surface Precipitation Accumulations Upstream of the Olympic Mountains using Observations and Simulations: An OLYMPEX Case Study

Analysis of surface precipitation accumulations upstream, near-shore, and adjacent to the Olympic mountains from the 17 December 2015 case during OLYMPEX using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations, the NPOL dual-polarization radar, and high-resolution soundings investigates the role of low-level blocking on upstream precipitation enhancement. Past work shows that frontal systems often slow while approaching complex terrain if the Froude number is sufficiently low. Low-level blocking of stable air ahead of a front can modify precipitation distributions by frontal deformation, slowing, splitting, or merging. Observed coastal sounding-derived vertical stability profiles indicate high levels of low-level stability and significant vertical wind shear, which showed little change while a warm front propagated northeastward and stalled as the stable air mass likely dammed against the terrain. Radial velocity from the NPOL radar and simulated wind fields indicate strong down-valley flow coupled with a frontal jet also contributed to long-lasting Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) waves extending offshore.

Using WRF simulations along with OLYMPEX observations, we examined the evolution of precipitation upstream of complex terrain by breaking down the distribution of pre-frontal and frontal precipitation accumulations as the warm front approached the Olympic Peninsula. Through dividing the event into regions upstream of NPOL and into timeframes relative to landfall, results indicate pre-warm frontal precipitation accumulations decrease with distance upstream of the coast with the highest accumulations present over the terrain. As the front's translation speed slowed and eventually stalled, the warm frontal period accumulations are highest far upstream of the coast and over the terrain, with lesser accumulations in the middle region. These results indicate that upstream precipitation enhancement upstream is an indirect effect of the terrain influencing the frontal shape and propagation, resulting in enhanced frontal precipitation accumulations.