Integrating environmental modelling and qualitative social science to evaluate BECCS from abandoned cropland

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is essential in most climate change mitigation pathways, but the deployment of dedicated bioenergy crops risks enhancing land use competition. Recultivating recently abandoned cropland to produce perennial grasses has been highlighted as an option for near-term bioenergy deployment with reduced sustainability trade-offs. However, the real-world feasibility of utilizing abandoned cropland for bioenergy and BECCS is still unclear.

We used a combination of natural science and qualitative social science methods to assess near-term recultivation opportunities for bioenergy, considering biophysical potentials, future biomass demand, and sociotechnical conditions. Focusing on Norway, we processed high-resolution global gridded land use projections from integrated assessment to unravel how global drivers may affect Norwegian land use with future global climate action. We mapped recently abandoned cropland using satellite data and quantified bioenergy and BECCS resource potentials using a crop yield model. We interviewed local farmers and stakeholders and performed a policy document analysis in the region with the highest resoure potential. Applying the multi-level perspective, we investigated the interplay between technical aspects and social aspects.

Land use projections showed major near-term bioenergy crop deployment in SSP-RCP2.6 scenarios and Trøndelag had the highest Norwegian near-term bioenergy resource potentials from abandoned cropland. While we found a theoretical potential for bioenergy crop expansion, the sociotechnical analysis showed a lack of real-world feasibility of achieving the modelled pace of bioenergy expansion from SSP-RCP2.6 scenarios. Remote sensing insufficiently captured actual local land availability for bioenergy. New policies are needed if BECCS from abandoned cropland is to deliver a meaningful contribution to climate change mitigation. Increased integration of social science perspectives into large-scale modelling exercises is key to better understand the role of BECCS in climate change mitigation.