The impact of urbanization on ecosystem services and ecological security patterns

This study compares and analyzes the impact of land use changes on ecosystem services and ecological security in different ecological backgrounds in Stockholm and Panjin. Using Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Circuit Theory, the dynamic changes in ecosystem services and ecological security patterns are assessed in these two regions. Based on the characteristics and land use changes from 2000 to 2020, four scenarios for 2050 are simulated using the PLUS model: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Priority Urban Development (PUD), Priority Ecological Protection (PEP), and Balanced Urban-Ecological Development.The results show that in Panjin, the growth rate of construction land was 21.49% from 2000 to 2020, and when this probability was applied to the transfer probability of Priority Urban Development in the Stockholm region, there was a significant change in the ecological security pattern. In contrast, in Stockholm County, the correlation between the change rates of all land use types and other indicators was weak, suggesting limited influence of these factors on land use changes. However, in Panjin, there was a strong positive correlation between the change rates of construction land, unused land, and population and GDP. This implies that in regions with lower economic levels, there is a higher dependence on ecosystem services and ecological security patterns compared to higher economic regions.Observations reveal an increase in forest and grassland area in Panjin City. However, the distribution of high-value ecological source areas is not concentrated enough and exhibits a high rate of change. In contrast, the Stockholm region has maintained a stable pattern of ecological source areas over the past 20 years. The Stockholm region has developed a relatively reasonable ecological security pattern, which is the result of continuous ecological protection and planning efforts over many years.