Analytical Propagation of Emission Uncertainties into CAMS Policy Products
- 1Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
- 2Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), The Netherlands
We present a methodology and first results for analytical propagation of emissions uncertainties
through the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model (CTM) and an application of these uncertainty
estimates to policy products provided by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
(CAMS) for European cities. CTMs are widely employed in atmospheric modeling to simulate
the transport and transformation of pollutants, but uncertainties in emission estimates can
significantly impact the accuracy of air quality predictions. Our study systematically analyzes
the propagation of uncertainties arising from emissions. The emissions’ uncertainties are consistent
with the CAMS regional emissions product and are calculated using detailed, countryspecific
uncertainty estimates in activity data and generic emission factor uncertainties. The
uncertainties are calculated per source sector and country. The Local Fractions/Sensibilities [1]
methodology available in the EMEP MSC-W model is a tool that allows computation of sourcereceptor
relationships more efficiently. In conjunction with analytical methods for uncertainty
propagation, we deliver air quality predictions with uncertainty estimates at a fraction of the
computational cost and with increased traceability compared to modern surrogate modeling
techniques. In our study we focus on PM2.5 and PM10, and first results will be presented for the
impact of emission uncertainties on forecasted PM concentrations in European cities, as well as
uncertainties in contributions from different source sectors and countries. By integrating emission
uncertainty propagation, our study aims to provide decision-makers with a more accurate
assessment of the reliability of CAMS policy products under various atmospheric conditions
and in the future provide these estimates as part of their operational delivery.
References
[1] P. Wind, B. Rolstad Denby, and M. Gauss, “Local fractions – a method for the calculation
of local source contributions to air pollution, illustrated by examples using the emep
msc-w model (rv4 33),” Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1623–1634,
2020. [Online]. Available: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1623/2020/
How to cite: Blake, L., Wind, P., Fagerli, H., Valdebenito, A., Super, I., and Kuenen, J.: Analytical Propagation of Emission Uncertainties into CAMS Policy Products, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21289, 2024.
