Simulating Nature’s randomness with CoSMoS - A Versatile Stochastic Modeling Framework for Hydrometeorological Phenomena

Nature depends on the inherent unpredictability of randomness, a significant force influencing hydrometeorological processes. While physics provides sophisticated models, understanding the variability within randomness is crucial for evaluating environmental risks. Despite the availability of numerous stochastic models tailored to specific statistical properties, identifying essential features for accurate simulations across time, space, and scales remains a challenge. This presentation outlines the progress in CoSMoS, a user-friendly stochastic modeling framework that advances from basic scenarios to complex multisite and space-time simulations. The underlying philosophy of this framework is to faithfully replicate the probabilities describing the occurrences of magnitudes and correlations in space and time. CoSMoS excels in generating time series for various hydroclimatic variables and simulating intricate space-time phenomena, as demonstrated by its effectiveness in replicating storms, cyclones, and air mass collisions. This showcases its versatility in capturing complex behaviors across different scales.

References

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