Potential assessment of flood resource utilization based on the inflow flood identification model

The potential assessment of flood resource utilization is a prerequisite for the rational allocation of water resources and storage capacity in a watershed. In response to the increasingly uneven distribution of water resources in the context of climate change, an inflow flood identification model was established based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, improved peak-over threshold method, and time-varying parameters with Poisson distribution model. A potential assessment method of flood resources utilization in reservoir groups was proposed based on constraints such as the comprehensive regulation and storage capacity of the watershed and water demand. The four cascaded reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River (Jinxia Four Reservoirs), namely Wudongde, Baihetan, Xiangjiaba, and Xiluodu, was used as a case study. The results show that: 1998 and 2002 are the consistency change points of the runoff seies from June to November at Xiangjiaba Hydrological Station. The main type of inflow flood is short-fat, and the 3-day flood volume is a key indicator of balanced comprehensive utilization benefits except for the flood peak. Jinxia Four Reservoirs are constrained by storage capacity, when encountering floods with a design standard of once-in-a-century or below, the potential utilization of flood resources is 37.27×10⁸m³. It is recommended to continuously optimize the storage capacity by raising the water level to 952.26m, 806.77m, 576.31m, and 373.99m in sequence of Jinxia Four Reservoirs. This work aims to provide reference for the optimal allocation of water resources and storage capacity in the watershed.